Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
